Kondratieff cycles

Named after Russian-born economist NIKOLAI KONDRATIEFF (1892-1938), Kondratieff cycles refers to trade cycle of long duration.

KONDRATIEFF studied American, British and French wholesale prices and interest rates from the 18th century, and found that the peaks and troughs in economic activity fell at regular intervals.

Joseph Schumpeter applied the term ‘Kondriatieff cycles’ to cycles of 50-60 years in duration. Harvard economists conducted similar work into British wheat prices from the 13th century and found cycles lasting 54 years.

Also see: business cycle, sunspot theory, product life-cycle theory, acceleration principle, fine tuning, multiplier-accelerator, political business cycle

Source:
J J van Duijin, The Long Wave in Economic Life (London, 1983)

In economics, Kondratiev waves (also called supercyclesgreat surgeslong wavesK-waves or the long economic cycle) are hypothesized cycle-like phenomena in the modern world economy.[1]

It is stated that the period of a wave ranges from forty to sixty years, the cycles consist of alternating intervals of high sectoral growth and intervals of relatively slow growth.[2]

Long wave theory is not accepted by most academic economists.[3] Among economists who accept it, there is a lack of agreement about both the cause of the waves and the start and end years of particular waves. Among critics of the theory, the general consensus is that it involves recognizing patterns that may not exist.

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